EU Council President: Runners and Riders
Strap in because this is a very long post...
In my last post I said if you were lucky I’d tell you who I think will, and who I think should, get the job as President of the European Council. Well you lucky things here it is...
From all the speculation as to who might get the post there are 22 riders who are considered contenders.
| Who? | F/I | Position | Nation |
| Bertie Ahern | Former | PM | Ireland |
| Jose-Maria Aznar | Former | PM | Spain |
| Tony Blair | Former | PM | UK |
| Jan Peter Balkenende | Incumbent | PM | Holland |
| Manuel Barroso | Incumbent | President | EU |
| Carl Bildt | Incumbent | Foreign Minister | Sweden |
| Dora Bakoyannis | Former | Minister | Greece |
| Francois Fillon | Incumbent | PM | Franch |
| Felipe Gonzalez | Former | PM | Spain |
| Tarja Halonen | Incumbent | President | Finland |
| Jean-Claude Juncker | Incumbent | PM | Luxembourg |
| Václav Klaus | Incumbent | President | Czech Rep |
| Aleksander Kwasniewski | Former | President | Polish |
| Paavo Lipponen | Former | PM | Finland |
| Angela Merkel | Incumbent | Chancellor | Germany |
| Ursula Plassnik | Former | Minister | Austria |
| Anders Fogh Rasmussen | Former | PM | Denmark |
| Herman Van Rompuy | Incumbent | PM | Belgium |
| Olli Rehn | Incumbent | Commissioner | Finland |
| Mary Robinson | Former | President | Ireland |
| Wolfgang Schüssel | Former | Chancellor | Austria |
Some are former holders of senior political office in their own countries – and some are still in harness in those posts.
Of this bunch my own choice would be Mary Robinson, former Irish President and former UN High Commissioner on Human Rights. Sadly, Robinson has ruled herself out of the job and will be focussing on here ongoing good works. I`m still hoping that she can be persuaded to allow her name to go forward and she would be an excellent representative of the EU and is a respected figure.
The list above is fairly male heavy, so which other women could have a shot other than Robinson? Angela Merkel has been talked about but the chances of her leaving the post of Chancellor of Germany is zilch. Tarja Halonen, the Finnish President, is well regarded for her work in human rights but, again, I can`t see her leaving the post which she fought so hard to get.
Ursula Plassnik may be in with a chance as the acceptable face of Wolfgang Schüssel. However, she has knocked back chances to have a higher profile role in the council in the past. There is another problem for Plassnik getting the job – she stands at well over 6ft tall...can you image Sarkozy voting for a another woman to tower over him at photocalls?
For my money the woman who has the best shot at the post is former Greek foreign minister Dora Bakoyannis. Bakoyannis comes from a centre-right background, has wide experience in international affairs (including as a chair of OSCE). The appointment of Bakoyannis would, however, be seen to stymie any chance of Turkey joining the EU in the short term.
Of the chaps...
Bertie Ahern...nope...not after the tribunals back in Ireland. Aznar and Gonzalez...I don`t see there being much chance for a Spanish candidate while there is already a Portuguese President of the Commission – I suspect that would be viewed as making matters a little Iberian heavy.
Barroso? Nope. While it is theoretically possible that the President of the Commission and the President of the Council can be one and the same person...no one in the EU is that daft to try it. Václav Klaus doesn`t have much chance if the Czech’s are seeing as the ones holding up the Lisbon treaty being completely ratified. Olli Rehn is a sitting commissioner and has hinted he is interested in the job, but he has no cheering section (not even from the Finns) and its expected that he will try and return to domestic politics when his term is up.
Begian PM Herman Van Rompuy would be seen a safe pair of hands and something of an elder statesman...but it took them so long to settle a government in Belgium under Van Rompuy that I believe that no-one would want to rock that particular boat – although it is thought that Van Rompuy isn`t necessarily that happy in the post which has gone from short-term care-taker to something much longer term. Paavo Lipponen is out the game as Poland have already complained about his ties to Russian gas giant Gazprom. Francois Fillon, French Prime Minister, would be blocked as some of the smaller countries in the EU think that the President must not come from one of the big countries. Also Fillons close ties to Sarkozy would been seen as a problem.
Wolfgang Schüssel didn`t make himself many friends in Europe when he went into coalition with Jorg Haider during his time in office. Also while Schüssel may be from the small country of Austria he is still viewed as being Merkel’s ally. Aleksander Kwasniewski, former Polsih President, would be viewed by some as being the best option from ‘new’ Europe. He does have form in area of promoting tolerance and reconciliation, but he is of the centre left at a time when the centre right is in the ascendency in the EU.
Blair...war in Iraq...UK is not in the Eurozone...would seek to make it a powerful role...from a big country. I don`t see Blair standing any real chance. EU positions have serious form in the favourite not getting the job.
Carl Bildt, Foreign Minister of Sweden, and Jean-Claude Juncker, PM of Luxembourg, are in many ways similar characters. Generally well regarded as safe pairs of hands, no real enemies and come from small EU nations. Of the two Juncker is thought to covet the role as has been tipped as being the ‘safe and boring’ option. Bildt is a past PM of Sweden and has taken an active role in Balkan affairs for the the past 20 years or so. But, like the UK, Sweden is outside of the Eurozone and doesn`t look like joining anytime soon.
Jan Peter Balkenende, Dutch PM, is a Christian democrat and something of a mild mannered diplomat. He’s headed up the Dutch government for some time and would be seen as a more forward thinking appointment than Juncker. The question would be...does he want the job?
Anders Fogh Rasmussen is the past Prime Minister of Denmark and would have been a good bet for the post 12 months ago, but he has recently become the Secretary General of NATO and I doubt he’d leave that post after only a few months.
So where does that leave us?
I think that the current favourite for the post is Jan Peter Balkenende. 
He may not set the heather alight, but we have to remember that there are a great number of forces who do not want a ‘big character’ President and are instead looking for a efficient chairman. Balkenende fits that bill with a level of credibility that far outweighs the likes of Wolfgang Schüssel or Jean-Claude Juncker.
The fall-back should Balkenende say no would probably be Herman Van Rompuy; although he looks like a man who is looking forward to retirement.
As a wild-card they could do far worse than Dora Bakoyannis as the President, with the likes of Carl Bildt as the High Represenative.
In summary... I`d like Mary Robinson but I suspect we’ll get Jan Peter Balkenende.
2 viewpoints:
I am from the Netherlands. And I know that Balkenende would be a very wrong choice. In the Netherlands he has been absent in each and every crisis. Only when the opposition forces him to an opinion, he comes up with some kind of statement. He gives the impression of someone suffering from a clinical depression.
Beside this, he is a child! When he first met Bush jr., the former president of the USA, he behaved like a small boy that got a compliment of a headmaster. When he was patted on his shoulder by mister president, he was out of his wits from joy. In the Netherlands we made jokes about this, but we were extremely embarrassed. To please this Bush, he dragged us in an illegal war with Iraq. When the new coalition for his present government was formed, he demanded, that there would be no interrogation about this war. So we, the people, are not allowed to know what really let to this war.
A dutch soldier in Iraq fired his gun in the air during a riot. At that time an Iraqi male fell to the ground, apparently wounded or death, nobody knows. The same day an Iraqi male was buried. Maybe the same person, maybe another. The dutch soldier was arrested for murder by the dutch prosecutors office. Then there were endless trials against this soldier. In the end, each and every judge did acquit him from every charge and the dutch authorities had to pay him a great lot of money.
And now the big question. The Netherlands were in war with Iraq. During that war a soldier was attacked in the back by the dutch prosecutors office. Were was prime-minister Balkenende when this happened? This is of course a rhetorical question. He was were he is always when we need him: hiding in his tower, playing Harry Potter.
And now a question for the readers of this. And this question is NOT rhetorical.
Do you want such a person to be the leader of the European Union? Do you want Balkenende as your “president”?
Apart from right or wrong about the war: You have to back up your soldiers, who risk life and limb, each inch of the way. Balkenende did abandon the soldier mentioned above. This soldier became a soccerbal and he was kicked around by left-wing extremists from the public prosecutors office. Balkenende stood by and did nothing.
I do not know if Blair would be a very good choice. But I have seen enough from Blair, that he would not abandon his own soldiers during a war that he himself choose for them. If you lead your soldiers into a war, you have to stand behind them, support them. As he once said: “Backbone, not back down”. Or in other words: “Backbone, not back down, is what the European Union needs.”
There is no place in European government for a wimp and traitor like Balkenende. If his own soldiers can not rely on him, can we?
Besides: The people of the Netherlands voted against the European treaty. Balkenende did not let us vote again, because he knew, that we would say no again. So Balkenende is signed a treaty with a foreign power against the explicit wishes of the people. That is high treason.
In his previous cabinet there was a minister of justice, Piet Hein Donner, who had to resign because he was guilty of eleven counts of burn-murder. The establishment tried to blame an asylum-seeker for this murders, but Donner is the real murderer. This same Donner belongs in jail, but he is now minister of social affairs.
Do you trust Balkenende after reading this? Do you want him to be the 'Capi di tutti capi' in Europe. That would really bring closer the European Revolution.
If there is any decency left in Europe, you should all turn your back to Balkenende.
So you don`t like Balkenende then...
He's not my choice (as I`ve said, I`d like to see Mary Robinson get it) but he does seem to be the most likely candidate at the moment.
Post a Comment